2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
By Paul Goebel
With the baseball season coming up in only three weeks, it’s time to unveil LeoBeingLeo’s top 10 fantasy sleepers for the 2012 season. These players consist of both pitchers and hitters and are put on this list because of expected production without minimal or any hype surrounding them.
Lucas Duda – OF (NYM)
Yes, this could just be my Mets bias in effect by putting Duda in the number one spot but the truth is, the kid can flat out rake and is truly worthy of the top spot. Through half a season (301 AB) last year for the Mets, Duda strung together a .292 BA (.370 OBP) along with 10 HR and 50 RBI. Even though this averages out to only 20 HR through a full season, the best has yet to come for Duda. Just by watching him, you can tell that he is the next Adam Dunn, with a higher batting average, because the ball just flies off the bat. Put this together with the fact that the fences are being moved in at Citi Field this year and you have a star in the making, capable of handling the number one spot on the 2012 fantasy sleepers list.
2012 Projections: .284 BA (.366 OBP) 28 HR, 99 RBI
Anibal Sanchez – RHP (MIA)
Anibal had a very good season last year for the Marlins, but it seemed to go completely unnoticed, probably due to his measly 8-9 record. However, his other stats showed that he actually pitched very well, essentially taking over the ace spot after Josh Johnson went out early with elbow issues. For the second consecutive year, Sanchez made 32 starts and threw at least 195 innings. He also pitched to a 3.67 ERA and 1.28 WHIP all while striking out 202 batters. These stats alone would have earned Sanchez a spot on this list as an unnoticed 200 strikeout season always deserves credit, however, Sanchez has many factors in his favor for 2012. Both the Marlins new stadium, one that sounds like it will play as poorly as Citi Field has for the hitters, and the fact that Sanchez is entering a walk year are two major reasons why he is a 2012 fantasy sleeper.
2012 Projection: 14-8, 2.96 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 208 K’s
Dustin Ackley – 2B (SEA)
The second overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, behind only a young man named Stephen Strasburg, Ackley certainly looks like the real deal. Not only does he play a prime and thin fantasy position, but he can hit. He might not be playing in a juggernaut of a lineup or a hitters’ ballpark, but I don’t see either of those two factors limiting his ability. I would put a lot of money on him finishing the season as a top five fantasy second basemen. Factoring out his poor September, probably due simply to fatigue, Ackley even impressed in his first half year in the pros, something not every player can do. You can certainly bank on Ackley as your fantasy team’s starting second basemen in 2012.
2012 Projection: .294 BA (.357 OBP) 18 HR, 69 RBI, 73 R, 18 SB
Jordan Zimmermann – RHP (WAS)
Zimmermann will always be overshadowed by Stephen Strasburg, but don’t let this lack of lime light fool you. Zimmermann certainly has the potential to end the year with comparable numbers to Strasburg. Coming off of TJ surgery, Zimmermann posted a 3.18 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 124 K’s in 161.1 IP. Very nice numbers - especially the ERA and WHIP - however, I expect better out of Zimmermann. Going into his first full season after the surgery, when the pitcher is finally back to full health, this is Zimmermann’s year. The ERA and WHIP will both be around where they were last year, possibly lower, but the K’s will jump up dramatically. After all, this year’s low K total was an aberration for Zimmermann as he has always struck out close to the same number of innings he’s thrown, including his rookie year when he struck out 92 in 91.1 IP. Jordan Zimmermann probably will not be a household name this time next year, but he certainly won’t be finding himself on any sleeper lists.
2012 Projection: 16-7, 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 198 K’s
Jason Heyward - OF (ATL)
It could have been a sophomore slump or just an unlucky and injury plagued season, but whatever it was, 2011 was a year to forget for Heyward. While Jason will be forgetting 2011, we should as well forget the dreadful numbers that he put up that year (.227 BA, 14 HR, 42 RBI) and focus more on the numbers he put up in his rookie season (.277 BA, 18 HR, 72 RBI). I expect an up tick in production from the rookie year numbers from the young-but-ready right fielder.
2012 Projection: .289 BA (.397 OBP), 26 HR, 94 RBI
Jon Niese - LHP (NYM)
Simply put, Niese has some nasty stuff. The only issue that has halted his development into the ace I believe he can be is injuries. However, injuries shouldn’t be a problem this year due in part to something quite comical, Jon’s new nose. Over the off-season Jon Niese decided to get a nose job, an idea brought up to him by former Met Carlos Beltran. At first Niese did it for purely aesthetic reasons, but his new nose has also had other positives. According to Niese, his breathing has gotten a lot better and has led to him participating in much tougher drills and thus has put him in the best shape of his life. Niese now looks ready to throw 200 innings for the first time in his career and with the newfound endurance, which bodes very well for his season outlook.
2012 Projection: 11-9, 3.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 197 K’s
Michael Morse - OF/1B (WAS)
After years of mediocrity and one good half-season, Morse broke out in a big way in 2011. The big slugger swatted 31 HRs and knocked in 95 RBI in a weak Nats’ lineup and pitcher friendly ballpark. Probably the most impressive of Morse’s stats was his .303 BA. In 2012, look for Morse to put up either the same or better numbers than he did in 2011. With a healthy Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Laroche along with the progression of youngsters Ian Desmond, Danny Espnosa, and Wilson Ramos, Morse should get the protection that he lacked but did not necessarily need last year. Additionally, either Bryce Harper or whichever center fielder the Nats will trade John Lannan for should add even more protection. With Morse, you can grab a big slugger yet also an average hitter no earlier than the 6th round. Pitchers might catch up to him but it shouldn’t affect him too much.
2012 Projection: .274 BA (.353 OBP), 31 HR, 112 RBI
Desmond Jennings – OF (TB)
Jennings truly looks like a future star. If you take out September from Jennings’ last year numbers – he probably suffered from some fatigue – he combined to bat .333 with 8 HRs, 20 RBI, and 14 SBs across 141 at bats. If you convert that to a seasons worth of at bats, say 600, then Jennings numbers turn into roughly a .333 BA, 34 HRs, 85 RBI, and 60 SB. While basically all of those numbers seem extremely high, essentially half of that would be a great season. In total, I truly expect Jennings to put together a very good fantasy season, supplying his owners with good contact skills along with some power and a hefty amount of stolen bases.
2012 Projection: .289 BA (.355 OBP), 16 HR, 67 RBI, 48 SB
Mat Gamel - 1B (MIL)
Prince Fielder’s replacement, Gamel has been in the minors for way too long as he was always blocked off by Fielder and even Casey McGehee for a little while. Now with Fielder gone, Gamel is finally getting a shot at the age of 26. I think it’s safe to assume that Gamel is incredibly sick of toiling away in the minor leagues and will do all that he can with the first base job that is already his. Gamel, who hit .310 BA (.372 OBP), 28 HR, and 96 RBI in the minors last year, will certainly not put up these numbers in the majors but will do plenty in the Brewers’ ballpark and in their still stacked lineup. Since he’s in a position of enormous depth, he can be snagged in the last round of probably every draft and is worth a look in deep mixed leagues as a utility player.
2012 Projections: .268 BA (.326 OBP), 22 HR, 67 RBI
Jarrod Parker - RHP (OAK)
While it might be a very aggressive prediction, in my mind this kid is this year’s Michael Pineda. A top prospect in the D’Back’s system, the major piece in the Trevor Cahill trade, and now the top prospect in the Athletics’ system, Parker has the ceiling of a prototypical ace. Unless he completely bottoms out during spring training, Parker should crack the Athletics’ opening day rotation thanks in part to their off-season fire sale and thus lack of starting pitching. Additionally, even though the A’s offense could be detrimental to Parker’s value, their huge ballpark will certainly be a plus. There’s not much risk in taking Parker with your last pick, and he could turn out to be a huge steal.
2012 Projections: 7-11, 4.01 ERA (1.49 WHIP), 171 K’s
Players Who Missed the Cut-
Here is an extended list of players who just missed the 2012 sleepers list. These players either missed the list because of less expected production, too much hype surrounding them, or injury questions. They are not in any particular order.
Matt Moore, TAM (LHP)
Dayan Viciedo, CHW (OF)
Brandon Morrow, TOR (RHP)
Josh Johnson, MIA (RHP)
Yoenis Cespedes, OAK (OF)
Tyler Pastornicky, ATL (SS)
Brandon Beachy, ATL (RHP)
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (LHP)
Daniel Bard, BOS (RHP)
Devin Mesoraco, CIN (C)
Jason Kipnis, CLE (2B)
Kendrys Morales, LAA (1B/DH)
Johan Santana, NYM (LHP)
Hishashi Iwakuma, SEA (RHP)
Yu Darvish, TEX (RHP)
Bryce Harper, WSH (OF)
Neftali Feliz, TEX (RHP)
Luke Scott, TAM (1B/DH)
Jason Bay, NYM (OF)
Clay Bucholz, BOS (RHP)
Trevor Bauer, ARI (RHP)
Danny Duffy, KC (LHP)
Jesus Montero, SEA (C)
Shelby Miller, STL (RHP)
Drew Pomeranz, COL (LHP)
Mike Moustakas, KC (3B)
Obviously this year’s deadline centers around Howard. No team wants to make a real move before he either stays or goes, and it’s slowing everything down. It seems like it’s Nets or bust as far as a Howard trade goes, and I’m picking bust. I don’t think Orlando will be moving D12 in the next two weeks, and will painfully watch him walk away for nothing this summer.
One of two elite point guards on the market this year, I’m not sure Nash is really on the market. I would imagine a number of teams (Pacers? Magic? Lakers?) have called Phoenix to see what it might take to land Nash, but have been rejected. It would make a whole lot of sense for the Suns to move their franchise point guard, but I don’t think they will.
Rondo seems to be clearly getting shopped, and some teams are certainly interested. If I was Boston, I’d be looking for a package centered around picks and/or very young players. That excludes semi-young guys like Josh Smith, since it seems like Boston has a few very tough years ahead of them. A guy like Smith surrounded by nothing won’t get you anywhere, so they might as well go into full rebuilding mode. The problem, of course, is that teams with really good, very young players don’t want to move them, making a Rondo deal unlikely. Yes it would make some sense for Boston to move Rondo, but they gain nothing by trading him now as opposed to in the summer when their future is more clear. That, I think, is really the key. Rondo stays a Celtic.
Both of these guys have been brought up in trade discussions, and they both have roughly equal value. Curry is younger, but has ankle problems. Ellis is a little older, but a better a scorer. However, he’s a horrible defender and is a free agent after next year. A Curry-for-Rondo swap makes some sense, but then the Warriors would be facing a similar situation as the Cs - building a team around Rondo - so I don’t see it happening. Ellis has been mentioned in a couple different Dwight Howard scenarios, but, like I said, I don’t see Howard leaving Orlando this month, so those go out the window. I think Ellis could be had for a pretty fair price (Joakim Noah? Paul George? Evan Turner + pick?), but no teams are showing particularly serious interest, so I think both of these guys will stick around. 
An Allen deal becomes much more likely if Rondo is moved, and vise versa. He has an expiring contract and is probably the league’s best three point shooter, making him a really enticing trade target. Some rumors have him going to a team like Minnesota, but I think Lob City is the best fit. He’d slide right into the spot created by Chauncey Billups’ injury, sending Randy Foye back to the bench. Eric Bledsoe would be pretty fair compensation going back to Boston, especially if a Rondo deal happens. As for his two buddies, I think they’ll be staying put. Pierce means too much to the Celtics to move and Garnett’s gargantuan contract, while expiring, makes him tough to trade. Prediction - only Allen moves teams. 
Beasley is a really solid scorer, but a total black hole on offense and an expiring contract. That means that teams won’t be trading for him for the long-term, hurting his trade value. He’s been offered up to the Lakers for a first-round pick, but they weren’t willing to pay the luxury tax that would have come along with him and so he’s still a T’wolf (wolf? wolve? wolv?). I like the idea of him in Boston, maybe in a deal for Pierce or KG, but I don’t see the Cs dealing for a guy who could walk in six weeks. The fit I like is Beasley in Utah. The Jazz have some good young wing players in Gordon Heyward, CJ Miles and Alec Burks, but none of those guys are really that good yet. Beasley would bring much needed scoring from the wing while helping to bridge the gap until their younger guys are ready. In return, I think a lottery-protected pick and the veteran Raja Bell would be enough to get it done. 
Sessions is a really solid point guard that could help a lot of teams, but is currently sitting behind rookie Kyrie Irving. He’s a perfect trade candidate, and I can’t imagine why he’d be a Cav after the deadline. The Lakers are a great fit, for a package of Darius Morris and first-rounder going back to the Cavs. Miami would also be a perfect landing spot, with a similar package going to Cleveland. Regardless, I think it’s clear Sessions will be moved, and my guess is that he’ll be a Laker. 
Kaman seems like a total lock to be moved before the deadline. The Hornets are absolutely terrible, and he hits free agency this summer. The Heat could definitely use him, but don’t have the assets to land him. Houston and Golden State have shown interest, and I think he’ll end up with one of them. The Warriors finally started Ekpe Udoh at center today, though, so between that and their shitty record I don’t see them coughing up too much for a veteran with an expiring contract. Houston is on the playoff bubble in the West, and a deal for Kaman makes much more sense for them. The two teams discussed a deal that would send Jordan Hill and Hasheem Thabeet (remember him?) to New Orleans for Kaman earlier in the year, and ultimately I think something along those lines will get done.
Both of these forwards are underachieving and have huge contracts. The only way either gets moved is if he’s traded for the other one, which makes no sense. The East’s two most pathetic teams are stuck with their guys.